Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Kentucky Senate

In the 2020 Kentucky Senate race, Mitch McConnell (R) won by about 20 points.

Mitch McConnell· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+19.5

Final polls said

R+8.7

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Quinnipiac University	R+12.0	7.5	✓
2	Morning Consult	R+11.3	8.2	✓
3	Bluegrass Community and Technical College	R+10.4	9.1	✓
4	Cygnal	R+10.3	9.2	✓
5	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+9.0	10.5	✓
6	Data for Progress	R+7.0	12.5	✓
7	Swayable	R+2.8	16.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
7	The Economist	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
9	Race to the WH	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 91%	0.008	✓
11	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓