Actual result
R+19.5
Final polls said
R+8.7
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+13.1 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+12.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Morning Consult | R+11.3 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Bluegrass Community and Technical College | R+10.4 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cygnal | R+10.3 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+9.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Data for Progress | R+7.0 | 12.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Swayable | R+2.8 | 16.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 365 | R+2.8 | 17 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 911 | R+11.3 | 8 |
| Bluegrass Community and Technical College | 2020-10-22 | 250 | R+10.4 | 9 |
| Cygnal | 2020-10-19 | 640 | R+10.3 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2020-10-14 | 625 | R+9.0 | 11 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-16 | 807 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 746 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 1164 | R+12.0 | 8 |