Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
D+3.8
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore Information Group | EVEN | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+1.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+1.8 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+1.8 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | Colby College | D+3.2 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | D+7.0 | 15.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+7.1 | 15.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | Data for Progress | D+8.0 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | Citizen Data | D+8.1 | 16.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Quinnipiac University | D+12.0 | 20.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.430 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 69% | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 1024 | D+8.0 | 17 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 611 | D+1.8 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 1007 | D+2.0 | 11 |
| Colby College | 2020-10-23 | 879 | D+3.2 | 12 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2020-10-04 | 600 | D+7.1 | 16 |
| Digital Research | 2020-09-29 | 466 | D+1.0 | 10 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 718 | D+8.0 | 17 |
| Moore Information Group | 2020-09-21 | 500 | EVEN | 9 |
| Colby College | 2020-09-20 | 847 | D+4.0 | 13 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-19 | 500 | D+7.0 | 16 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-13 | 663 | D+5.0 | 14 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 1183 | D+12.0 | 21 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-09-06 | 600 | D+8.1 | 17 |