Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Maine Senate

In the 2020 Maine Senate race, Susan M. Collins (R) won by about 9 points.

Actual result

R+8.6

Final polls said

D+3.8

4 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Moore Information Group	EVEN	8.6	✗
2	Digital Research	D+1.0	9.6	✗
3	Emerson College	D+1.8	10.4	✗
4	SurveyUSA	D+2.0	10.6	✗
5	Colby College	D+3.2	11.8	✗
6	The New York Times/Siena College	D+5.0	13.6	✗
7	Suffolk University	D+7.0	15.6	✗
8	Pan Atlantic Research	D+7.1	15.7	✗
9	Change Research	D+8.0	16.6	✗
10	Data for Progress	D+8.0	16.6	✗
11	Citizen Data	D+8.1	16.7	✗
12	Quinnipiac University	D+12.0	20.6	✗

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
2	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 59%	0.348	✗
4	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 65%	0.423	✗
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 68%	0.459	✗
7	The Economist	Dem 69%	0.476	✗
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 73%	0.533	✗
9	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
12	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 77%	0.593	✗
13	Race to the WH	Dem 79%	0.624	✗