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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Maine Senate
In the 2020 Maine Senate race, Susan M. Collins (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
D+3.8
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore Information Group | EVEN | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+1.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+1.8 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Colby College | D+3.2 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+7.0 | 15.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+7.1 | 15.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | Data for Progress | D+8.0 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | Citizen Data | D+8.1 | 16.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Quinnipiac University | D+12.0 | 20.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.456 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 69% | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-3117
Emerson College2020-10-3010
SurveyUSA2020-10-2511
Colby College2020-10-2312
Pan Atlantic Research2020-10-0416
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Maine Senate race?
Susan M. Collins (R) won, by about 8.6 points (R+8.6).
When was the 2020 Maine Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.