Actual result
R+10.0
Final polls said
R+1.3
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+9.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.6 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+3.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | RMG Research | R+2.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Strategies 360 | R+1.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Montana State University Billings | D+1.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Data for Progress | D+1.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | D+2.0 | 12.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 62% | 0.384 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 920 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-26 | 886 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2020-10-21 | 546 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 758 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-17 | 800 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-10-17 | 500 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-09 | 798 | EVEN | 10 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-06 | 500 | R+9.1 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-02 | 737 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 2020-09-23 | 1615 | D+2.0 | 12 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-15 | 625 | R+1.0 | 9 |