Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Montana Senate

In the 2020 Montana Senate race, Steve Daines (R) won by about 10 points.

Steve Daines· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+10.0

Final polls said

R+1.3

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	R+9.1	0.9	✓
2	Change Research	R+4.0	6.0	✓
3	The New York Times/Siena College	R+3.0	7.0	✓
4	RMG Research	R+2.0	8.0	✓
5	Strategies 360	R+1.0	9.0	✓
6	Public Policy Polling	D+1.0	11.0	✗
7	Montana State University Billings	D+1.0	11.0	✗
8	Data for Progress	D+1.0	11.0	✗
9	Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab	D+2.0	12.0	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 79%	0.044	✓
2	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 69%	0.096	✓
5	The Economist	Rep 66%	0.116	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 65%	0.122	✓
7	Race to the WH	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
8	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 59%	0.168	✓
10	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 62%	0.384	✗