Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+15.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+15.1 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+15.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+14.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+17.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+14.3 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+19.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+11.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2020-10-27 | 600 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-26 | 864 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-25 | 1018 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-21 | 757 | D+19.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-11 | 899 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-10-10 | 500 | D+14.4 | 1 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-03 | 1147 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-30 | 700 | D+15.1 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2020-09-27 | 600 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-09-26 | 972 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-09-21 | 657 | D+19.0 | 3 |