Toss-up · 2020 Senate

New Hampshire Senate

In the 2020 New Hampshire Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen (D) won by about 16 points.

Jeanne Shaheen· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+15.7

Final polls said

D+15.5

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+15.1	0.6	✓
2	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	D+15.0	0.7	✓
3	Suffolk University	D+14.4	1.3	✓
4	American Research Group	D+17.0	1.3	✓
5	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	D+19.0	3.3	✓
6	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+11.0	4.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
9	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
10	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓