Actual result
R+30.2
Final polls said
R+19.5
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+25.4 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SoonerPoll.com | R+19.5 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Amber Integrated | R+16.0 | 14.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | 2020-10-17 | 5466 | R+19.5 | 11 |
| Amber Integrated | 2020-09-19 | 500 | R+16.0 | 14 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2020-09-05 | 486 | R+24.5 | 6 |