← all past elections
Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Alaska Governor
In the 2022 Alaska Governor race, Mike Dunleavy (R) won by about 26 points.
Actual result
R+26.1
Final polls said
R+26.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dittman Research | R+26.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+18.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Dittman Research2022-10-230
Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research2022-09-088
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Alaska Governor race?
Mike Dunleavy (R) won, by about 26.1 points (R+26.1).
When was the 2022 Alaska Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.