Actual result
R+26.1
Final polls said
R+26.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dittman Research | R+26.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+28.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+18.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dittman Research | 2022-10-23 | 403 | R+26.0 | 0 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-09-08 | 500 | R+18.0 | 8 |