Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+16.1
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+10.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+15.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+16.8 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+18.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | D+31.0 | 19.6 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 2022-10-25 | 1004 | D+31.0 | 20 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2022-10-23 | 500 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-10-21 | 1879 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-20 | 1000 | D+10.7 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-17 | 718 | D+18.0 | 7 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-10-12 | 1200 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2022-09-18 | 626 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-09-17 | 1911 | D+17.0 | 6 |