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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Connecticut Governor
In the 2022 Connecticut Governor race, Edward Lamont (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+16.1
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+10.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+15.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+18.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | D+31.0 | 19.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis2022-10-2520
McLaughlin & Associates2022-10-235
Quinnipiac University2022-10-214
Emerson College2022-10-201
SurveyUSA2022-10-177
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Connecticut Governor race?
Edward Lamont (D) won, by about 11.4 points (D+11.4).
When was the 2022 Connecticut Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.