Actual result
R+7.5
Final polls said
R+7.5
25 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | R+8.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | R+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Echelon Insights | R+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | R+6.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Landmark Communications | R+6.6 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Trafalgar Group | R+8.9 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Data for Progress | R+9.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Amber Integrated | R+9.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | R+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | Wick | R+9.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | R+9.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Emerson College | R+5.6 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | Rasmussen Reports | R+10.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | InsiderAdvantage | R+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 18 | Seven Letter Insight | R+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 19 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 20 | Civiqs | R+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 21 | Patinkin Research Strategies | R+2.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 22 | Center Street PAC | R+2.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 23 | Targoz Market Research | R+14.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 24 | Remington Research Group | R+14.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 25 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Polls (41)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-06 | 550 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Landmark Communications | 2022-11-06 | 1214 | R+6.6 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-05 | 1103 | R+8.9 | 1 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1474 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 579 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2022-11-04 | 1077 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-11-01 | 600 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2022-11-01 | 1168 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Echelon Insights | 2022-11-01 | 500 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1150 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2022-10-31 | 700 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-31 | 1171 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-30 | 1000 | R+5.6 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1002 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Seven Letter Insight | 2022-10-28 | 762 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-27 | 550 | R+8.4 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-26 | 604 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2022-10-23 | 1053 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-22 | 1076 | R+6.9 | 1 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2022-10-22 | 1022 | R+6.8 | 1 |
| Landmark Communications | 2022-10-16 | 500 | R+6.6 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-16 | 550 | R+7.4 | 0 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-15 | 984 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2022-10-15 | 905 | R+7.3 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-10 | 1084 | R+8.9 | 1 |
| Wick | 2022-10-10 | 1018 | R+9.1 | 2 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-10 | 717 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-10-09 | 1157 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-06 | 1000 | R+4.9 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-04 | 550 | R+5.6 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-02 | 1076 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2022-09-29 | 1030 | R+10.3 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1011 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-18 | 1006 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2022-09-16 | 600 | R+3.4 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2022-09-16 | 1178 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-14 | 1202 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-09-11 | 542 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2022-09-11 | 861 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-09-10 | 1278 | R+2.0 | 6 |