Actual result
D+12.5
Final polls said
D+13.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+15.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+9.3 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Civiqs | D+17.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+8.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Victory Research | D+7.6 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Repass | D+22.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Osage Research | D+2.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2022-11-06 | 1208 | D+7.6 | 5 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+20.0 | 7 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-24 | 659 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-22 | 1000 | D+9.3 | 3 |
| Osage Research | 2022-10-14 | 600 | D+2.0 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-10-10 | 770 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Repass | 2022-10-08 | 1000 | D+22.0 | 9 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-09-26 | 800 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-22 | 1000 | D+15.1 | 3 |
| Osage Research | 2022-09-09 | 500 | D+7.0 | 6 |