Actual result
D+29.1
Final polls said
D+26.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+24.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MassINC Polling Group | D+30.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+28.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+27.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+24.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | D+23.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2022-10-23 | 700 | D+28.0 | 1 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2022-10-22 | 1000 | D+27.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-15 | 500 | D+23.0 | 6 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2022-10-09 | 987 | D+30.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-12 | 500 | D+25.4 | 4 |