Actual result
D+32.4
Final polls said
D+31.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+25.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | D+32.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | OpinionWorks | D+31.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+25.1 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+22.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpinionWorks | 2022-10-22 | 989 | D+31.0 | 1 |
| The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | 2022-09-24 | 810 | D+32.0 | 0 |
| Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 2022-09-10 | 748 | D+22.0 | 10 |