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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Maine Governor
In the 2022 Maine Governor race, Janet T. Mills (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+13.2
Final polls said
D+9.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ascend Action | D+15.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+11.3 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+10.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+8.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2022-11-045
SurveyUSA2022-10-307
Ascend Action2022-10-282
Pan Atlantic Research2022-10-113
Emerson College2022-09-192
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Maine Governor race?
Janet T. Mills (D) won, by about 13.2 points (D+13.2).
When was the 2022 Maine Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.