Actual result
D+13.2
Final polls said
D+9.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ascend Action | D+15.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+11.3 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+10.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+8.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+7.8 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-11-04 | 922 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-30 | 1116 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-28 | 471 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2022-10-11 | 800 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-19 | 1164 | D+11.3 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-09-17 | 694 | D+14.0 | 1 |