Actual result
R+15.5
Final polls said
R+16.2
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+20.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | R+15.3 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+16.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+15.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+14.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Data for Progress | R+18.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | R+18.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | co/efficient | R+18.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+12.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+20.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Wick | R+10.6 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Emerson College | R+20.8 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Phillips Academy | R+22.2 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-05 | 700 | R+15.3 | 0 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-11-05 | 1056 | R+22.2 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-11-04 | 2077 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1995 | R+18.0 | 2 |
| Wick | 2022-11-04 | 725 | R+10.6 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 850 | R+20.8 | 5 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-10-28 | 1541 | R+18.0 | 2 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-25 | 1098 | R+18.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-23 | 600 | R+16.9 | 1 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2022-10-20 | 600 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-18 | 727 | R+12.9 | 3 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-10-18 | 600 | R+17.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-16 | 1392 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-10-04 | 500 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-27 | 1147 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-09-27 | 901 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-25 | 500 | R+17.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2022-09-17 | 555 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-09-17 | 870 | R+18.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-14 | 800 | R+15.2 | 0 |