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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
New Hampshire Governor
In the 2022 New Hampshire Governor race, Chris Sununu (R) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
R+15.5
Final polls said
R+16.2
13 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | R+15.3 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+16.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+15.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+14.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Data for Progress | R+18.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | R+18.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | co/efficient | R+18.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+12.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Wick | R+10.6 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Emerson College | R+20.8 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Phillips Academy | R+22.2 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
20 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
InsiderAdvantage2022-11-050
Phillips Academy2022-11-057
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2022-11-044
Data for Progress2022-11-042
Wick2022-11-045
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Hampshire Governor race?
Chris Sununu (R) won, by about 15.5 points (R+15.5).
When was the 2022 New Hampshire Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.