Actual result
R+1.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
19 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.2 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | KAConsulting | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | R+0.4 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Echelon Insights | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | R+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | Cygnal | R+5.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 16 | University of Nevada Department of Political Science | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 17 | InsiderAdvantage | R+5.2 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | Phillips Academy | D+4.6 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Polls (26)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-06 | 1089 | R+2.5 | 1 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1100 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-04 | 550 | R+5.2 | 4 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-11-02 | 501 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Cygnal | 2022-11-01 | 600 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 2000 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2022-10-26 | 500 | R+1.2 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-26 | 500 | R+0.4 | 1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-26 | 600 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Echelon Insights | 2022-10-25 | 500 | EVEN | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-24 | 1100 | R+6.8 | 5 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-10-22 | 1052 | D+4.6 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-21 | 885 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-20 | 550 | R+5.7 | 4 |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | 2022-10-16 | 721 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-16 | 819 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-16 | 1057 | EVEN | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2022-10-15 | 707 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| University of Nevada Department of Political Science | 2022-10-12 | 586 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-06 | 500 | R+0.6 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2022-09-29 | 828 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-09-24 | 741 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-19 | 1086 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-16 | 874 | EVEN | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-09 | 1000 | D+0.2 | 2 |