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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Nevada Governor
In the 2022 Nevada Governor race, Joe Lombardo (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
19 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.2 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | KAConsulting | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | R+0.4 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Echelon Insights | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Cygnal | R+5.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | University of Nevada Department of Political Science | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 16 | InsiderAdvantage | R+5.2 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 18 | Phillips Academy | D+4.6 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 55% | 0.198 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
26 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2022-11-061
Research Co.2022-11-050
Data for Progress2022-11-040
InsiderAdvantage2022-11-044
KAConsulting2022-11-020
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Nevada Governor race?
Joe Lombardo (R) won, by about 1.5 points (R+1.5).
When was the 2022 Nevada Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.