Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+3.2
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | R+13.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | R+15.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+9.6 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Blueprint Polling | R+8.5 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+4.7 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ascend Action | R+3.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Amber Integrated | R+1.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Bruno Political Consulting | D+1.0 | 14.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | SoonerPoll.com | D+3.3 | 17.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | Tomahawk Strategies | D+3.4 | 17.1 | ✗ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascend Action | 2022-11-05 | 682 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| Tomahawk Strategies | 2022-11-02 | 729 | D+3.4 | 17 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2022-10-30 | 500 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Blueprint Polling | 2022-10-29 | 557 | R+8.5 | 5 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-10-27 | 501 | R+1.0 | 13 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 1000 | R+9.6 | 4 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2022-10-26 | 324 | D+3.3 | 17 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-26 | 749 | D+3.0 | 17 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-10-14 | 500 | D+1.0 | 15 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-11 | 638 | D+7.0 | 21 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2022-10-05 | 301 | D+3.8 | 17 |
| American Viewpoint | 2022-09-27 | 500 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-09-20 | 500 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| Bruno Political Consulting | 2022-09-17 | 2989 | D+1.0 | 15 |