Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
D+1.8
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Blueprint Polling | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | FM3 Research | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+5.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+0.3 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | DHM Research | R+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Civiqs | D+8.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.3 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Hoffman Research Group | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Nelson Research | R+2.9 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Clout Research | R+5.4 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-03 | 1393 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Nelson Research | 2022-11-01 | 577 | R+2.9 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 975 | D+5.5 | 2 |
| Blueprint Polling | 2022-10-29 | 585 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| FM3 Research | 2022-10-25 | 741 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-20 | 1161 | R+1.3 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-17 | 1021 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Hoffman Research Group | 2022-10-17 | 684 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-17 | 804 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| GBAO | 2022-10-12 | 800 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Clout Research | 2022-10-08 | 842 | R+5.4 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-30 | 796 | R+2.4 | 6 |
| Clout Research | 2022-09-25 | 422 | R+3.5 | 7 |
| DHM Research | 2022-09-23 | 600 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Nelson Research | 2022-09-19 | 620 | R+1.9 | 5 |