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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Oregon Governor
In the 2022 Oregon Governor race, Tina Kotek (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
D+1.8
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Blueprint Polling | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | FM3 Research | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+5.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | DHM Research | R+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Civiqs | D+8.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.3 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Hoffman Research Group | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Nelson Research | R+2.9 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Clout Research | R+5.4 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data for Progress2022-11-031
Nelson Research2022-11-016
Emerson College2022-10-312
Blueprint Polling2022-10-291
FM3 Research2022-10-251
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Oregon Governor race?
Tina Kotek (D) won, by about 3.4 points (D+3.4).
When was the 2022 Oregon Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.