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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Oregon Governor
In the 2022 Oregon Governor race, Tina Kotek (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
D+1.8
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Blueprint Polling | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | FM3 Research | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+5.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | DHM Research | R+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Civiqs | D+8.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.3 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Hoffman Research Group | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Nelson Research | R+2.9 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Clout Research | R+5.4 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 53% | 0.276 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data for Progress2022-11-031
Nelson Research2022-11-016
Emerson College2022-10-312
Blueprint Polling2022-10-291
FM3 Research2022-10-251
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Oregon Governor race?
Tina Kotek (D) won, by about 3.4 points (D+3.4).
When was the 2022 Oregon Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.