Actual result
D+19.1
Final polls said
D+11.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fleming & Associates | D+13.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+11.3 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+10.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-03 | 800 | D+10.1 | 9 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2022-10-01 | 402 | D+13.0 | 6 |