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Toss-up · 2022 House
California House
In the 2022 California House race, Julia Brownley (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+4.8
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | D+4.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OnMessage Inc.2022-09-154
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California House race?
Julia Brownley (D) won, by about 9.1 points (D+9.1).
When was the 2022 California House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.