Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+4.8
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | D+4.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Dem 91% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. | 2022-09-15 | 400 | D+4.8 | 4 |