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Toss-up · 2022 House
California House
In the 2022 California House race, Julia Brownley (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+4.8
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | D+4.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 13 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OnMessage Inc.2022-09-154
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California House race?
Julia Brownley (D) won, by about 9.1 points (D+9.1).
When was the 2022 California House election held?
It was held in November 2022.