Toss-up · 2022 House

California House

In the 2022 California House race, Ken Calvert (R) won by about 5 points.

Ken Calvert· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+4.7

Final polls said

R+3.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Tulchin Research	R+3.0	1.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 91%	0.008	✓
5	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	The Economist	Rep 89%	0.012	✓
10	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 65%	0.126	✓