Actual result
R+4.7
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.3 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | R+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Rep 64% | 0.128 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 2022-09-30 | 600 | R+3.0 | 2 |