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Toss-up · 2022 House
California House
In the 2022 California House race, Ken Calvert (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+4.7
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulchin Research | R+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tulchin Research2022-09-302
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California House race?
Ken Calvert (R) won, by about 4.7 points (R+4.7).
When was the 2022 California House election held?
It was held in November 2022.