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Toss-up · 2022 House
Montana House
In the 2022 Montana House race, Ryan K. Zinke (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+1.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victoria Research & Consulting | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 80% | 0.038 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Montana State University Billings2022-10-091
Victoria Research & Consulting2022-09-292
Impact Research2022-09-161
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Montana House race?
Ryan K. Zinke (R) won, by about 3.2 points (R+3.2).
When was the 2022 Montana House election held?
It was held in November 2022.