Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+1.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victoria Research & Consulting | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 2.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | Rep 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | 2022-10-09 | 143 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 2022-09-29 | 840 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Impact Research | 2022-09-16 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |