Toss-up · 2022 House

Montana House

In the 2022 Montana House race, Ryan K. Zinke (R) won by about 3 points.

Ryan K. Zinke· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+3.2

Final polls said

R+1.7

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Montana State University Billings	R+2.0	1.2	✓
2	Impact Research	R+2.0	1.2	✓
3	Victoria Research & Consulting	R+1.0	2.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
5	Race to the WH	Rep 92%	0.006	✓
6	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	The Economist	Rep 89%	0.012	✓
9	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 80%	0.038	✓
10	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.062	✓