Actual result
D+8.1
Final polls said
R+0.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+4.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | co/efficient | D+4.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+1.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+1.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+0.2 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | R+6.0 | 14.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 52% | 0.271 | ✗ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 56% | 0.312 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-11-04 | 1043 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-10-28 | 791 | R+6.0 | 14 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-25 | 525 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-10-04 | 250 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-09-27 | 450 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-09-17 | 423 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-14 | 415 | D+4.7 | 3 |