Toss-up · 2022 House

New Hampshire House

In the 2022 New Hampshire House race, Chris Pappas (D) won by about 8 points.

Chris Pappas· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+8.1

Final polls said

R+0.3

3 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+4.7	3.4	✓
2	co/efficient	D+4.0	4.1	✓
3	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+1.0	7.1	✓
4	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	D+1.0	7.1	✓
5	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	R+6.0	14.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 67%	0.109	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
7	Race to the WH	Dem 57%	0.185	✓
8	The Economist	Dem 54%	0.212	✓
9	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
10	JHK Forecasts	Rep 51%	0.260	✗
11	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 52%	0.271	✗
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 56%	0.312	✗
13	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
14	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.562	✗