Toss-up · 2022 House

New Hampshire House

In the 2022 New Hampshire House race, Ann McLane Kuster (D) won by about 12 points.

Actual result

D+11.7

Final polls said

D+5.0

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	D+10.0	1.7	✓
2	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+8.0	3.7	✓
3	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	D+8.0	3.7	✓
4	Emerson College	D+17.7	6.0	✓
5	co/efficient	R+1.0	12.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
2	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 85%	0.021	✓
8	The Economist	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
9	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 79%	0.046	✓
10	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—