Actual result
D+11.7
Final polls said
D+5.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+10.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+8.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+8.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+6.9 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+17.7 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | co/efficient | R+1.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | Dem 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-11-04 | 1027 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-10-28 | 750 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-25 | 573 | R+1.0 | 13 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-10-04 | 250 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-09-27 | 451 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-09-17 | 445 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-14 | 385 | D+17.7 | 6 |