Toss-up · 2022 House

Nevada House

In the 2022 Nevada House race, Steven A. Horsford (D) won by about 5 points.

Steven A. Horsford· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+4.8

Final polls said

D+3.3

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+3.3	1.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 85%	0.023	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 82%	0.034	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 81%	0.036	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 77%	0.053	✓
7	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—