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Toss-up · 2022 House
Ohio House
In the 2022 Ohio House race, Emilia Sykes (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | D+2.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 65% | 0.125 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 80% | 0.641 | ✗ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
RRH Elections2022-11-013
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Ohio House race?
Emilia Sykes (D) won, by about 5.3 points (D+5.3).
When was the 2022 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.