Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | D+2.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.4 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.118 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 80% | 0.641 | ✗ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRH Elections | 2022-11-01 | 525 | D+2.0 | 3 |