Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+6.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | D+11.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | EVEN | 7.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.996 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 13 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | 2022-10-21 | 1276 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2022-09-26 | 1282 | D+13.2 | 6 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-09-08 | 500 | EVEN | 7 |