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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Alaska Senate
In the 2022 Alaska Senate race, Kelly C. Tshibaka (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | D+11.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | EVEN | 7.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.996 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 13 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Alaska Survey Research2022-10-214
Alaska Survey Research2022-09-266
Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research2022-09-087
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Alaska Senate race?
Kelly C. Tshibaka (D) won, by about 7.4 points (D+7.4).
When was the 2022 Alaska Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.