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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Georgia Senate
In the 2022 Georgia Senate race, Raphael Warnock (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+0.1
30 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Patriot Polling | D+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Frederick Polls | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Research Co. | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | Wick | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | R+0.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Phillips Academy | R+0.8 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Civiqs | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Trafalgar Group | D+3.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Targoz Market Research | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 19 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 20 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 21 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 22 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 23 | Center Street PAC | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 24 | Amber Integrated | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 25 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 26 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 27 | AtlasIntel | R+3.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 28 | co/efficient | R+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 29 | Landmark Communications | D+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 30 | Echelon Insights | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 31 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 32 | Moore Information Group | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 33 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 34 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 35 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+18.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.383 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
59 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Mitchell Research & Communications2022-12-042
Trafalgar Group2022-12-041
Landmark Communications2022-12-043
InsiderAdvantage2022-12-041
Data for Progress2022-12-031
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Georgia Senate race?
Raphael Warnock (D) won, by about 1.0 points (D+1.0).
When was the 2022 Georgia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.