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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Georgia Senate
In the 2022 Georgia Senate race, Raphael Warnock (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+0.1
30 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Patriot Polling | D+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Frederick Polls | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Research Co. | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | Wick | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | R+0.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Phillips Academy | R+0.8 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Civiqs | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Trafalgar Group | D+3.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Targoz Market Research | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 19 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 20 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 21 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 22 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 23 | Center Street PAC | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 24 | Amber Integrated | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 25 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 26 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 27 | AtlasIntel | R+3.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 28 | co/efficient | R+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 29 | Landmark Communications | D+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 30 | Echelon Insights | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 31 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 32 | Moore Information Group | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 33 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 34 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 35 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+18.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.384 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
59 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Mitchell Research & Communications2022-12-042
Trafalgar Group2022-12-041
Landmark Communications2022-12-043
InsiderAdvantage2022-12-041
Data for Progress2022-12-031
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Georgia Senate race?
Raphael Warnock (D) won, by about 1.0 points (D+1.0).
When was the 2022 Georgia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.