Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+0.1
30 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Patriot Polling | D+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Frederick Polls | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Research Co. | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | Wick | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+0.2 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | R+0.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | Phillips Academy | R+0.8 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Civiqs | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 18 | Trafalgar Group | D+3.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Targoz Market Research | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 20 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 21 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 22 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 23 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 24 | Center Street PAC | D+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 25 | Amber Integrated | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 26 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 27 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 28 | AtlasIntel | R+3.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 29 | co/efficient | R+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | Landmark Communications | D+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 31 | Echelon Insights | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 32 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 33 | Moore Information Group | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 34 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 35 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 36 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+18.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 56% | 0.315 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (59)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2022-12-04 | 625 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-12-04 | 1099 | D+3.7 | 1 |
| Landmark Communications | 2022-12-04 | 800 | D+5.5 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-12-04 | 750 | D+2.1 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-12-03 | 1229 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-12-01 | 818 | D+1.7 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-11-29 | 888 | D+1.6 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-11-28 | 1214 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| SSRS | 2022-11-27 | 1184 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-11-26 | 862 | R+0.8 | 4 |
| Frederick Polls | 2022-11-25 | 939 | EVEN | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2022-11-23 | 1300 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-11-14 | 500 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2022-11-06 | 791 | R+3.2 | 4 |
| Landmark Communications | 2022-11-06 | 1214 | R+0.4 | 1 |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2022-11-06 | 690 | D+18.0 | 17 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-06 | 550 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-05 | 1103 | R+3.2 | 4 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | EVEN | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1474 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 579 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2022-11-04 | 1077 | EVEN | 1 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-11-01 | 600 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2022-11-01 | 1168 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Echelon Insights | 2022-11-01 | 500 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1150 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-31 | 1171 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Moore Information Group | 2022-10-31 | 800 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2022-10-31 | 700 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-30 | 1000 | D+1.9 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1002 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-27 | 550 | R+2.2 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-26 | 604 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Moore Information Group | 2022-10-24 | 800 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-24 | 946 | R+3.4 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2022-10-23 | 1053 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-22 | 1076 | R+2.4 | 3 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2022-10-22 | 1022 | R+0.3 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2022-10-20 | 503 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Landmark Communications | 2022-10-16 | 500 | D+0.1 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-16 | 550 | D+2.9 | 2 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2022-10-15 | 905 | D+2.2 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-15 | 984 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-10 | 1084 | D+1.5 | 1 |
| Wick | 2022-10-10 | 1018 | EVEN | 1 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-10 | 717 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Moore Information Group | 2022-10-10 | 800 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-10-09 | 1157 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-06 | 1000 | D+2.2 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-04 | 550 | D+3.6 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-02 | 1076 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2022-09-29 | 1030 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1011 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-18 | 1006 | EVEN | 1 |
| YouGov | 2022-09-16 | 1178 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-14 | 1202 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-09-11 | 542 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2022-09-11 | 861 | R+1.6 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-09-10 | 1278 | D+6.0 | 5 |