← all past elections
Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Maryland Senate
In the 2022 Maryland Senate race, Chris Van Hollen (D) won by about 32 points.
Actual result
D+31.7
Final polls said
D+23.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+23.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics2022-09-109
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Maryland Senate race?
Chris Van Hollen (D) won, by about 31.7 points (D+31.7).
When was the 2022 Maryland Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.