Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Utah Senate

In the 2022 Utah Senate race, Evan McMullin (D) won by about 10 points.

Mike Lee· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+10.4

Final polls said

D+8.6

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+9.8	0.6	✓
2	Center Street PAC	D+12.0	1.6	✓
3	Noble Predictive Insights	D+15.0	4.6	✓
4	Dan Jones & Associates	D+5.0	5.4	✓
5	OnMessage Inc.	D+17.0	6.6	✓
6	Hill Research Consultants	D+1.0	9.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 80%	0.041	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 89%	0.792	✗
3	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.810	✗
4	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.810	✗
5	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.810	✗
6	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.810	✗
7	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.810	✗
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.810	✗
9	Split Ticket	Rep 90%	0.810	✗
10	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 96%	0.922	✗
11	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
12	JHK Forecasts	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 100%	0.997	✗
14	The Economist	Rep 100%	1.000	✗