Actual result
D+10.4
Final polls said
D+8.6
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+9.8 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Center Street PAC | D+12.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+15.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Dan Jones & Associates | D+5.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+4.5 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | OnMessage Inc. | D+17.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Hill Research Consultants | D+1.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 79% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Rep 89% | 0.792 | ✗ |
| 3 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.922 | ✗ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 12 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.997 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill Research Consultants | 2022-10-29 | 500 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 825 | D+9.8 | 1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-26 | 600 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Hill Research Consultants | 2022-10-10 | 500 | R+6.0 | 16 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-08 | 239 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2022-10-05 | 773 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-05 | 483 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2022-09-14 | 700 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2022-09-12 | 786 | D+3.0 | 7 |