← past elections
New Hampshire Governor
Actual result
R+9.4
Final polls said
D+0.1
7 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire | R+4.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+3.9 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Praecones Analytica | R+3.8 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Saint Anselm College | R+3.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | R+2.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | The Dartmouth Poll | D+17.5 | 26.9 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Dartmouth Poll | 2024-11-02 | 587 | D+17.5 | 27 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2024-10-31 | 2814 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Saint Anselm College | 2024-10-28 | 2791 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-26 | 901 | EVEN | 9 |
| Praecones Analytica | 2024-10-25 | 622 | R+3.8 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-22 | 915 | R+3.9 | 6 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 2024-10-16 | 600 | R+2.0 | 7 |