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PR Governor
Actual result
D+10.4
Final polls said
D+4.1
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Nuevo D√≠a/The Research Office | D+8.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Consultor√≠a Acad√©mica e Investigaci√≥n Social LLC | D+8.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Beacon Research | D+7.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Pasquines | D+5.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | LIT Data | D+5.3 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+2.1 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | AtlasIntel | D+1.5 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | IZQ Strategies | R+2.0 | 12.4 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIT Data | 2024-11-02 | 800 | D+5.3 | 5 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 4914 | D+1.5 | 9 |
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 2024-10-30 | 1000 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| LIT Data | 2024-10-28 | 800 | D+1.8 | 9 |
| Beacon Research | 2024-10-27 | 807 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Pasquines | 2024-10-26 | 766 | D+5.7 | 5 |
| IZQ Strategies | 2024-10-22 | 1651 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| LIT Data | 2024-10-21 | 800 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Consultoría Académica e Investigación Social LLC | 2024-10-16 | 784 | D+8.0 | 2 |