Illinois House

Actual result

D+8.8

Final polls said

D+5.7

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

D+4.7

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	M3 Strategies	D+5.7	3.1	✓
2	VotePredictor	D+4.7	4.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	RealClearPolitics	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 93%	0.006	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 91%	0.007	✓
5	Race to the WH	Dem 92%	0.007	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
13	VotePredictor	Dem 85%	0.023	✓
14	Split Ticket	Dem 83%	0.029	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
M3 Strategies	2024-11-02	753	D+5.7	3