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Toss-up · 2024 House
Illinois House
In the 2024 Illinois House race, Eric Sorensen (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.8
Final polls said
D+5.7
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M3 Strategies | D+5.7 | 3.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 91% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
M3 Strategies2024-11-023
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Illinois House race?
Eric Sorensen (D) won, by about 8.8 points (D+8.8).
When was the 2024 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2024.