Montana House

Actual result

R+7.7

Final polls said

R+1.0

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

R+5.6

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+5.6	2.1	✓
2	Impact Research	R+1.0	6.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
2	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 90%	0.011	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Rep 87%	0.016	✓
5	VotePredictor	Rep 85%	0.022	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 82%	0.031	✓
8	Split Ticket	Rep 77%	0.053	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Impact Research	2024-10-15	500	R+1.0	7