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Toss-up · 2024 House
Montana House
In the 2024 Montana House race, Ryan K. Zinke (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+7.7
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | R+1.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 87% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Impact Research2024-10-157
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Montana House race?
Ryan K. Zinke (R) won, by about 7.7 points (R+7.7).
When was the 2024 Montana House election held?
It was held in November 2024.