Toss-up · 2024 House

Montana House

In the 2024 Montana House race, Ryan K. Zinke (R) won by about 8 points.

Ryan K. Zinke· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+7.7

Final polls said

R+1.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Impact Research	R+1.0	6.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
2	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 90%	0.011	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Rep 87%	0.016	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 82%	0.031	✓
8	Split Ticket	Rep 77%	0.053	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓