New Hampshire House

Actual result

D+8.0

Final polls said

D+15.6

3 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

D+16.4

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Saint Anselm College	D+7.0	1.0	✓
2	University of New Hampshire	D+12.0	4.0	✓
3	VotePredictor	D+16.4	8.4	✓
4	The Dartmouth Poll	D+27.9	19.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 98%	0.001	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	Split Ticket	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—

Polls (3)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
The Dartmouth Poll	2024-11-02	253	D+27.9	20
University of New Hampshire	2024-10-31	1433	D+12.0	4
Saint Anselm College	2024-10-28	1407	D+7.0	1