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PR House
Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+1.9
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+7.2 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Pasquines | R+4.2 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+4.2 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | LIT Data | R+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | El Nuevo D√≠a/The Research Office | D+1.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Consultor√≠a Acad√©mica e Investigaci√≥n Social LLC | D+6.0 | 15.6 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 4914 | R+7.2 | 2 |
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 2024-10-30 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Beacon Research | 2024-10-27 | 807 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Pasquines | 2024-10-26 | 766 | R+4.2 | 5 |
| LIT Data | 2024-10-21 | 800 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Consultoría Académica e Investigación Social LLC | 2024-10-16 | 784 | D+6.0 | 16 |