Toss-up · 2024 President

Alaska President

In the 2024 Alaska President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 13 points.

Actual result

R+13.4

Final polls said

R+9.0

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Alaska Survey Research	R+10.0	3.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	Fox News	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	The Economist	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Rep 98%	0.001	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
10	Race to the WH	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
12	Split Ticket	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
13	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
14	Silver Bulletin	Rep 77%	0.052	✓