Alaska President

Actual result

R+13.4

Final polls said

R+9.0

2 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

R+17.0

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Alaska Survey Research	R+10.0	3.4	✓
2	VotePredictor	R+17.0	3.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	Fox News	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	The Economist	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	VotePredictor	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Rep 98%	0.001	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
10	Race to the WH	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
12	Split Ticket	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
13	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
14	Silver Bulletin	Rep 77%	0.052	✓

Polls (2)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Alaska Survey Research	2024-10-21	1703	R+10.0	3
Alaska Survey Research	2024-10-21	1703	R+8.0	5