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Maryland President
Actual result
D+28.8
Final polls said
D+27.9
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+29.6 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Washington Post | D+28.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+29.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+27.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | D+32.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Blueprint Polling | D+22.5 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Silver Bulletin | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | 2024-10-29 | 510 | D+22.5 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 472 | D+32.4 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-25 | 500 | D+27.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-20 | 865 | D+29.6 | 1 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-19 | 1000 | D+28.0 | 1 |