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Toss-up · 2024 President
Maryland President
In the 2024 Maryland President race, Kamala D Harris (D) won by about 29 points.
Actual result
D+28.8
Final polls said
D+27.9
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+29.6 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Washington Post | D+28.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+27.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | D+32.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Blueprint Polling | D+22.5 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Silver Bulletin | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Blueprint Polling2024-10-296
Morning Consult2024-10-274
YouGov2024-10-252
Emerson College2024-10-201
The Washington Post2024-10-191
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Maryland President race?
Kamala D Harris (D) won, by about 28.8 points (D+28.8).
When was the 2024 Maryland President election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.