Maine President

Actual result

D+6.9

Final polls said

D+9.5

2 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

D+8.9

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyUSA	D+8.0	1.1	✓
2	VotePredictor	D+8.9	2.0	✓
3	University of New Hampshire	D+11.0	4.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Dem 92%	0.007	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	Split Ticket	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
14	Silver Bulletin	Dem 87%	0.016	✓

Polls (2)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
University of New Hampshire	2024-10-31	1485	D+11.0	4
SurveyUSA	2024-10-26	1079	D+8.0	1