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Montana President
Actual result
R+19.9
Final polls said
R+19.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+27.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+20.2 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+19.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+27.9 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 752 | R+20.2 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-24 | 1000 | R+19.0 | 1 |