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Nevada President
Actual result
R+3.1
Final polls said
R+0.9
23 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+3.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | OnMessage Inc. | R+3.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+4.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | SSRS | R+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+6.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.2 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Patriot Polling | R+0.1 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+0.1 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.2 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Morning Consult | D+0.5 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | OH Predictive Insights | D+1.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Focaldata | D+1.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.5 | 5.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 84% | 0.027 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 3 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 54% | 0.209 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 50% | 0.249 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.253 | ✗ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 50% | 0.253 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 707 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 792 | R+0.1 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 782 | R+5.5 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 840 | R+0.1 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-30 | 700 | D+0.3 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 845 | R+3.6 | 1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2024-10-29 | 400 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-29 | 690 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-29 | 593 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-28 | 1010 | D+2.5 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 773 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 767 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1083 | R+0.9 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2024-10-27 | 721 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 531 | EVEN | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-26 | 1082 | D+0.2 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-23 | 683 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 540 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 600 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-19 | 800 | R+0.2 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 420 | D+0.5 | 4 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 529 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 1324 | D+1.0 | 4 |