Toss-up · 2024 President

Nevada President

In the 2024 Nevada President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

R+3.1

Final polls said

R+0.9

23 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	AtlasIntel	R+3.0	0.1	✓
2	OnMessage Inc.	R+3.0	0.1	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	R+2.0	1.1	✓
4	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+1.0	2.1	✓
5	SSRS	R+1.0	2.1	✓
6	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	R+6.0	2.9	✓
7	InsiderAdvantage	R+0.2	2.9	✓
8	Patriot Polling	R+0.1	3.0	✓
9	Emerson College	R+0.1	3.0	✓
10	Trafalgar Group	D+0.2	3.3	✗
11	Morning Consult	D+0.5	3.6	✗
12	OH Predictive Insights	D+1.0	4.1	✗
13	YouGov	D+1.0	4.1	✗
14	Focaldata	D+1.0	4.1	✗
15	Data for Progress	D+2.0	5.1	✗
16	The New York Times/Siena College	D+2.5	5.6	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 83%	0.028	✓
2	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 57%	0.185	✓
3	Silver Bulletin	Rep 54%	0.209	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Rep 52%	0.229	✓
5	Split Ticket	Rep 50%	0.249	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
9	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 50%	0.253	✗
10	Race to the WH	Dem 50%	0.253	✗
11	The Economist	Dem 51%	0.257	✗
12	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
14	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.562	✗