Oregon President

Actual result

D+14.4

Final polls said

D+12.0

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

D+14.0

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+14.0	0.4	✓
2	Public Policy Polling	D+12.0	2.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
7	Fox News	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
8	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
9	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
10	VotePredictor	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
11	JHK Forecasts	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
12	Silver Bulletin	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
13	Split Ticket	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
14	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 96%	0.002	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Public Policy Polling	2024-10-16	716	D+12.0	2