← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Massachusetts Senate
In the 2024 Massachusetts Senate race, Elizabeth Warren (D) won by about 20 points.
Actual result
D+19.8
Final polls said
D+21.8
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+20.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | MassINC Polling Group | D+22.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire | D+23.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire2024-10-313
MassINC Polling Group2024-10-302
Emerson College2024-10-251
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Massachusetts Senate race?
Elizabeth Warren (D) won, by about 19.8 points (D+19.8).
When was the 2024 Massachusetts Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.