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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Massachusetts Senate
In the 2024 Massachusetts Senate race, Elizabeth Warren (D) won by about 20 points.
Actual result
D+19.8
Final polls said
D+21.8
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+20.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | MassINC Polling Group | D+22.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire | D+23.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire2024-10-313
MassINC Polling Group2024-10-302
Emerson College2024-10-251
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Massachusetts Senate race?
Elizabeth Warren (D) won, by about 19.8 points (D+19.8).
When was the 2024 Massachusetts Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.