Alaska House
Nick Begich III (R) is favored to win the 2026 Alaska House race — about a 79% chance, winning by about 8 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: no polls of the race yet, so it leans on the seat's history and the national environment, predicting R+7.6 — a 79% Republican win.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alaska House race?
VotePredictor's model favors Nick Begich III (R), with roughly a 79% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+7.6.
What do the polls say in the Alaska House race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Alaska Survey Research (2026-08-05), showed R+35.2. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+7.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alaska House race?
Eric Hafner is the Democratic candidate; Nick Begich III is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alaska House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alaska House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.