Arizona House
JoAnna Mendoza (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Arizona House race — about a 66% chance, winning by about 4 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: no polls of the race yet, so it leans on the seat's history and the national environment, predicting D+3.7 — a 66% Democratic win.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Arizona House race?
VotePredictor's model favors JoAnna Mendoza (D), with roughly a 66% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+3.7.
What do the polls say in the Arizona House race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Normington, Petts & Associates (2026-06-11), showed D+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+3.7.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Arizona House race?
JoAnna Mendoza is the Democratic candidate; Juan Ciscomani is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Arizona House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Arizona House forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, JoAnna Mendoza's (D) lead has widened to 66%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Arizona House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.