NY-21 House
Anthony Constantino (R) is favored to win the 2026 NY-21 House race — about a 74% chance, winning by about 9 points in the projection. Updated daily from 2 polls.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.0 — a 74% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 NY-21 House race?
VotePredictor's model favors Anthony Constantino (R), with roughly a 74% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+9.0.
What do the polls say in the NY-21 House race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from J.L. Partners (2026-08-17), showed R+13.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+9.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 NY-21 House race?
Blake Gendebien is the Democratic candidate; Anthony Constantino is the Republican.
When is the 2026 NY-21 House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the NY-21 House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.