Washington House
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) is favored to win the 2026 Washington House race — about a 78% chance, winning by about 7 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: no polls of the race yet, so it leans on the seat's history and the national environment, predicting D+7.2 — a 78% Democratic win.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Washington House race?
VotePredictor's model favors Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D), with roughly a 78% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+7.2.
What do the polls say in the Washington House race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Emerson College (2026-07-10), showed R+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+7.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Washington House race?
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is the Democratic candidate; John Braun is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Washington House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Washington House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.