Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+30.6 — a 98% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Trump Doubles Down On Endorsing ‘Jerk’ Senator Despite Vowing To Never Back HimPresident Donald Trump endorsed Republican South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds for reelection Monday despite vowing to never support him just four years prior.
The Daily Caller · June 2, 2026
Senate Republicans Kill Democratic Attempt to Rein Trump in on IranSenate Republicans are allowing Donald Trump to continue to wage war with impunity.Senate Republicans voted Wednesday to block a resolution that would have stopped Trump from taking further military action in Iran without the express approval of Congress. The…
The New Republic · April 15, 2026
Kristi Noem's Fake Job Was Meant to Distract Her from Running for SenateTrump reportedly did not want Noem challenging South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds.
Jezebel · April 15, 2026
What’s next for Kristi Noem? 2026 Senate chatter grows after DHS exitRumors swirl that fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem may challenge Sen. Mike Rounds in 2026 South Dakota primary after Trump dismissal.
Fox News · March 7, 2026
MAGA Senator Appears Not to Have Read the SAVE ActRepublican lawmakers pretending that the SAVE Act isn’t a huge problem for married women are either lying or haven’t actually read the bill. Speaking to Fox News’s Larry Kudlow Tuesday, Republican Senator Mike Rounds dismissed the “inauthentic, unprincipled” …
The New Republic · February 18, 2026
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Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-30 | 726 | R+25.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-02-18 | 685 | R+17.0 |