Democratic
Jamie Davis
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Jamie Davis vs. Julia Letlow: Louisiana U.S. Senate election, 2026
Jamie Davis vs. Julia Letlow. Incumbent lost renomination. Republican hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Julia Letlow favored
Likely R
92%
chance to win
R+4.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Julia Letlow
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · 3 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Julia LetlowREP$7.1M raised
Spent $6.6MCash on hand $443k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$161k
- Legal & Professional Services$109k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$102k
- Homemaker$96k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$78k
States
- LA$664k
- VA$114k
- CA$100k
- DC$97k
- TX$93k
Jamie DavisDEM$5.0M raised
Spent $3.8MCash on hand $1.3MDebts $54k75% from donors under $200Self-funded $54k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$479k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$92k
- Retired$53k
- Not Reported$17k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$13k
States
- LA$248k
- CA$132k
- MA$47k
- FL$42k
- NY$39k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 92%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Louisiana we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
How the blue wave almost tilted Louisiana’s Senate race — but Julia Letlow narrowly won
Jamie Davis rode the same wave that turned the nation blue in Tuesday night’s midterm elections, but that wave in Louisiana crested just short of sending the Democratic candidate to the Senate.
The Advocate · Yesterday
Stephanie Grace: Louisiana’s Senate nail-biter reveals a whole new political landscape
Republican Julia Letlow won Louisiana’s Senate seat, as expected, but columnist Stephanie Grace says Democrat Jamie Davis’ impressive showing raises all sorts of questions for the state’s formerly one-party politics.
The Advocate · November 4, 2026
Ex-Trump voters torch president for 'bad things' he did in brutal post-midterm confessions
Voters who once trusted President Donald Trump to fix the economy say he left them worse off, and on Tuesday many of them made him pay for it.Darin Gadd, a 59-year-old military retiree from Columbus, Ohio, voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024, and he told the Wal…
Raw Story · November 4, 2026
Julia Letlow narrowly wins Louisiana’s U.S. Senate election as other Republicans fall
Julia Letlow culminated her improbable rise in Louisiana politics Tuesday by narrowly defeating Jamie Davis, a Democrat, to become Louisiana’s next senator.
The Advocate · November 4, 2026
Q&A: Louisiana’s Jamie Davis Could Shock the Nation
A conversation with a U.S. Senate candidate that Republicans are growing increasingly worried about. The post Q&A: Louisiana’s Jamie Davis Could Shock the Nation appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · November 2, 2026
Stephanie Grace: Jeff Landry’s not on the ballot, but he’s got a lot riding on LA Senate race
Senate candidate Julia Letlow tethered her campaign to President Donald Trump, but how the unexpectedly close race ends will also reflect Gov. Jeff Landry’s political might as he prepares to seek a second term, columnist Stephanie Grace writes.
The Advocate · November 1, 2026