Democratic
Cindy Holscher
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Cindy Holscher vs. Ty Masterson: Kansas governor election, 2026
Cindy Holscher vs. Ty Masterson. Incumbent term-limited..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Ty Masterson favored
Toss-up
62%
chance to win
R+1.2
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 13 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Ty Masterson
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
14 polls · 13 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government10-262026-10-26D+6.0D+5.3
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 62%
a probability from our model
Cook
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R (flip)≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Lean R (flip)≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Tilt R (flip)≈ R 60%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean R (flip)≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean R (flip)≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
What the markets say
Chance of winningVotePredictor Elections modelD 38%R 62%
Polymarket ↗D 100%R 0%
Market prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Past results
Every Kansas election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
The Cooler-Than-You-Think History Behind the Kansas We Saw Tuesday
“Kansas, get ready to learn what a polycule is,” read one Tuesday night tweet. All in due time. Let Kansans rest up. (This includes the ethically nonmonogamous community in Lawrence.)Kansas must be exhausted. It swung left 21.06 points Tuesday. As everyone no…
The New Republic · Yesterday
One statement lays bare the GOP’s colossal miscalculation behind its Kansas bloodbath
If any one statement sums up the colossal miscalculation underlying Kansas Republicans’ historic wipeout Tuesday night, it’s a single social media post from Senate President Ty Masterson.You might remember Masterson as the GOP leader who hoped to succeed Demo…
Raw Story · November 5, 2026
Cook Political Report shifts two red-state governor races toward Democrats
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved its ratings of the gubernatorial races in Nebraska from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” and in Kansas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” another positive sign for Democrats running in red state…
Freerepublic.com · October 27, 2026
Not a demon, not a witch: Kansas Democratic candidate for governor answers a Republican smear
Kansas state Sen. Cindy Holscher would like you to know she isn’t a demon, and her daughter, Maddie, isn’t a witch. “I am not a demon,” Holscher told MS NOW by video chat from Wichita on Friday. “I’m a mom to three great kids. I’m a wife of 34 years. I’m an a…
Biztoc.com · October 16, 2026
'Demonic Stuff': Kansas GOPer Says Democrat Rival Is A Witch
If you can’t win over voters with your unpopular policies, call your opponent a witch! That's the tactic Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate for Kansas governor, is using on the campaign trail. The New Republic reported Masterson accused his Democratic op…
Crooksandliars.com · October 16, 2026
Kansas Farm Bureau endorses Ty Masterson
Kansas Farm Bureau’s (KFB) Voters Organized to Elect Farm Bureau Friends (VOTE FBF) political action committee announced Monday its endorsement of Ty Masterson for Kansas governor.
Anvilcms.net · October 19, 2026