Democratic
James Russell
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Arkansas District 4 election, 2026
James Russell vs. Bruce Westerman. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Bruce Westerman favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+34.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+40.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Bruce Westerman
Incumbent representative for AR-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AR-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bruce WestermanREP · incumbent$3.0M raised
Spent $1.5MCash on hand $4.5M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$109k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$63k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$41k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
- Legal & Professional Services$30k
States
- AR$296k
- TX$72k
- DC$68k
- FL$54k
- VA$35k
James RussellDEM$22k raised
Spent $18kCash on hand $5kDebts $10k53% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- RISER, MARGARET$1k
- SMART TD PAC$1k
- STEGMAN, DEBORAH$600
- FAUST, VICKIE$550
- GRAY, JONATHAN$500
Industries
- Retired$4k
- Not Reported$1k
- Unemployed$650
States
- AR$5k
- CA$950
- MA$300
- MD$250
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AR-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arkansas's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Sanders helps open Arkansas Forest Health Research Center - Pine Bluff Commercial
UPDATED 10:14 a.m. Oct. 3. MONTICELLO — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, U.S. Rep. Bruce Westerman and other state leaders helped the University of Arkansas at Monticello open the Arkansas Forest Health Research Center on Friday (Oct. 2). The $16.8-million center…
Pine Bluff Commercial · October 3, 2026
US Republicans announce probe into environment groups
Republicans in Congress on Friday announced they were investigating nonprofit environmental groups over what they called their "radical lawfare campaigns" against "pro-growth" policies. The House Committee on Natural Resources, chaired by Congressman Bruce We…
Biztoc.com · September 4, 2026
Stauber will run for top Republican on House Natural Resources, while Westerman ponders next move
Rep. Pete Stauber of Minnesota is making a run for the top Republican spot on the House Natural Resources Committee in the next Congress — teeing up a potential battle with the current chair, Bruce Westerman, who isn’t ruling out asking for a waiver to serve …
Biztoc.com · September 3, 2026
Fair Health Care for Every American Southwest Arkansas Radio
Rep. Bruce Westerman (AR-04) Oftentimes, Washington overcomplicates simple issues that can be met with fiscally responsible, long-term solutions that lower costs and provide real result
Southwestarkansasradio.com · May 17, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗