Democratic
Jim Himes
Incumbent representative for CT-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Connecticut District 4 election, 2026
Jim Himes vs. Michael Goldstein. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jim Himes favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+29.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+23.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Michael Goldstein
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Benjamin Wesley · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CT-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jim HimesDEM · incumbent$1.7M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $2.4M10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$115k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$110k
- Not Reported$53k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$28k
- Technology & Communications$18k
States
- CT$248k
- NY$75k
- CA$45k
- DC$23k
- VA$19k
Michael GoldsteinREP$59k raised
Spent $33kCash on hand $27kDebts $29k26% from donors under $200Self-funded $25k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$13k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$6k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$800
- Homemaker$52
States
- FL$11k
- CT$10k
- IL$4k
- NY$3k
- NJ$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CT-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Connecticut's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'It's going to be a pretty awkward Nov. 9th': Rep. Himes on Haley Stevens endorsing GOP candidate
Haley Stevens is facing backlash from democrats after endorsing GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Representative Jim Himes ...
Biztoc.com · November 2, 2026
‘Break glass’ scenario revealed if Mike Johnson makes nightmare move before new House
Democrats are preparing for a doomsday scenario in which House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) tries to keep their members from taking their seats if the party wins a majority next week, and one top Democrat has named the move that would set off alarms.Rep. Jim H…
Raw Story · October 27, 2026
Rep. Jim Himes says the "the Iranians now, in some sense, control what happens on Election Day"
Democratic Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" that as President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks, "the Iranians now, in some sense, control what happens on Election …
CBS News · September 27, 2026
Transcript: Rep. Jim Himes on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 27, 2026
The following is the transcript of the interview with Rep. Jim Himes, Democrat of Connecticut, that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Sept. 27, 2026.
CBS News · September 27, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗